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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.