🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."